Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: positive announcements are delivered from various governments. Significant resources is expended on managing certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
After-Dark Attacks
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from across the border, a ability provided through timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to intercept incoming aerial threats flew past – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by NATO members.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: defensive missiles deployed against a incoming threat. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably supplied through partner states. Every firing shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly gives way to grim resignation: perhaps the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and further power outages.
Persistent Threats
Not long after, a automatic firearm fired at a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – probably Western-made equipment. Sadly, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its target.
With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: several casualties, devastation and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a need that regional partners are evidently unprepared to substitute in the immediate future.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from American leadership generated strong feelings, discussion and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.
Every new proposal from Washington follows the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This cycle will, certainly, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration operates on a assumption well known to international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government believes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does little to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from assuming that the current condition will not change more in its advantage in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing lives and land but avoiding a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its benefit.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not shift toward internal issues. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a mere seven days to kill the 28 points of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.
While new plans based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, mainly require sustained allied backing.
