Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that split the country and caused chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the political, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in universities but very few government figures or activists seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unity or the existing arrangement. They writes two pieces that seek objectivity in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and social data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates cover national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," stated O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they prefer unity but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government must establish what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate arguments, he said. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will ultimately not succeed but each side has possesses valuable insights to gain from the opposing positions."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should join the discussion, stated the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
